And now as the ADMK breaks ties with the National Democratic Alliance and the BJP, what else could stop an idea of alliance between the Indian National Congress and the AIADMK?
The war of words and a long-standing bitter relationship between the ADMK and BJP came to an end, post the resolution passed by the district secretaries and senior leaders’ meeting, held at the AIADMK headquarters.
The party cited the continuous derogatory and demeaning speeches of the BJP state leadership as the reason behind this breakup. The Dravidian party and its cadres celebrate this move as they consider the BJP as a trivial luggage that significantly hindered a bulk of minority votes. Meanwhile, the national party is in utter shock, as they have lost a precious partner who could probably win them a few seats in the upcoming 2024 general elections, which is of significance considering the growing popularity of the INDIA coalition.
So what's NEXT?
Along with this breakup, ADMK also announced its plan to form a fresh coalition at the state level, a ‘Mega-Coalition’ as coined by the party’s general secretary and former chief minister Edappadi. K. Palanisamy.
So the next exciting question would be, who could probably tie up with ADMK?
With this question, we must quickly revisit the reasons that may be considered for forming an electoral alliance.
The first is the ideology or the like-minded principles. The Dravidian parties carry the vision of Periyar, oriented toward social justice, and secular and inclusive politics, likewise is that of the Indian National Congress. The BJP driven by the RSS strongly adhered to Hindutva politics which weighs everything based on religion. While in the case of Tamil Nadu the DMK and ADMK are born rivals and could never come together, so is the case of BJP and Congress. The DMK, ADMK and the Congress are in line in terms of ideology. The odd one out is the BJP which holds a Hindutva agenda.
Despite BJP's divisive policies both the dhravidian parties crossed the lines in forming an electoral alliance, projecting the political environment that surrounded them. Both the parties discontinued from the coalition, realising the falling popularity among the voters. The recent development in Palanisamy’s ADMK is evidence of this factor. Unlike the BJP, the Congress has always been in the good books of the people of Tamil Nadu. Having Congress by the side is never going to make a negative impact, like that of the BJP.
Considering these factors, the only thing that stopped Congress from joining the ADMK group is the BJP, and now as the Hindutva party is untied from the baggage, the space is open for Congress to enter into a dialogue with the two-leaves party.
Should Congress sever ties with DMK?
The answer would be yes if less than 10 seats (including Puducherry) are allocated. The number 10 is nothing more or nothing less, it is the same, as allocated in the 2019 General Elections seat-sharing deal. Even back then the coalition put up an impressive performance winning 38 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the Congress winning the lone seat in Puducherry.
A notable aspect of 2019 was that the DMK coalition was in the opposition, despite which they swept the election. But now, being the ruling party and considering the anti-Modi sentiments among the Tamils, the coalition must register a full-on-full victory.
Recalling the seat-sharing agreement from 2021, the DMK entered the fray in 188 constituencies and emerged victorious in 133, while the Congress was assigned 25 and secured victory in 18. During negotiations, while parties expressed dissatisfaction with their allocation numbers, the DMK successfully persuaded all parties by emphasising their shared goal of establishing a majority government, a feat not achieved in the past quarter-century. Their argument centred on the necessity of attaining such a majority to counter the perceived autocratic tendencies of the Modi government, which they believe undermines other political entities.
All parties including the congress agreed upon and contested the elections wholeheartedly. Now it’s time for Congress to bargain on the same ground and gain seats not less than 10 (including Puducherry).
The ADMK stage can now accommodate more. Even in the case of other coalition parties from DMK slipping into the ADMK group, there would be more space created in the INDIA coalition. Either way, there is more opportunity for Congress to bargain and secure the desired number of seats.
So opening a dialogue with the AIADMK will put the Indian National Congress in a better position to secure more seats and ultimately add up to the numbers to bring down the divisive BJP government at the centre.
Comments